Colress's Experiment
Lost Origin · #190 · Rare Ultra
Market value
$1.50▼ 8.5%30d
PSA 10 price
$43.81(+2821%)
Thin market: only 146 PSA 10s exist, so this price can swing.
Price history
-10.7% since Oct 3, 2026
Oct 3, 2026Low $1.50 · High $1.73Nov 14, 2026
Series
Sword & Shield
Artist
Naoki Saito
Release date
2022/09/09
What grading does to this card
If it grades a PSA 10 (49%)
−$33.38
sells for $43.81
If it does not (51%)
−$64.24
PSA 9 and lower, on average
Even a PSA 10 would not cover the costs at this price. All figures are net of the raw card, grading, shipping and selling fees.
How we weigh the odds
We weigh every outcome by how often PSA-graded copies of this card come back a 10, 9 or 8. The average over all outcomes is the last line below.
49% chance of PSA 10 × $43.81$21.38
39% chance of PSA 9 × $9.52$3.71
10% chance of PSA 8 × $5.30$0.54
2% PSA 7 or lower × $1.35 (90% of raw)$0.03
Expected sale value$25.64
Selling fees (~13%)−$3.33
Raw card−$1.50
Grading (PSA Standard)−$59.99
Shipping both ways−$10.00
Average over all grades (-69%)−$49.18
Pop reports count submitted cards, and people mostly submit their best copies, so the real odds for a random raw card are likely a bit lower.
Buy Signal · Population report
Strong Buy49% of PSA-graded copies come back a 10
PSA population
298
Graded PSA 10
146
Gem Rate
49%
| Grade | PSA |
|---|---|
| 10 | 146 |
| 9 | 116 |
| 8 | 30 |
| 7 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 |
| Total | 298 |
Grade 10 value
What a Grade 10 sells for, by grading company.
PSALeads$43.81
CGC$9.61
Price ladder
Every condition and grade Scrydex tracks for this card.
Raw
NM$1.50
LP$1.51
MP$1.88
HP$1.25
DM$1.24
Graded
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