Lillie's Determination
Mega Evolution · #184 · Special Illustration Rare
Market value
$42.30▼ 17.2%30d
PSA 10 price
$116.81(+176%)
Price history
-44.0% since Apr 30, 2026
Apr 30, 2026Low $41.33 · High $76.61Nov 14, 2026
Series
Mega Evolution
Artist
satoma
Release date
2025/09/26
What grading does to this card
If it grades a PSA 10 (50%)
−$10.67
sells for $116.81
If it does not (50%)
−$72.54
PSA 9 and lower, on average
Even a PSA 10 would not cover the costs at this price. All figures are net of the raw card, grading, shipping and selling fees.
How we weigh the odds
We weigh every outcome by how often PSA-graded copies of this card come back a 10, 9 or 8. The average over all outcomes is the last line below.
50% chance of PSA 10 × $116.81$58.64
40% chance of PSA 9 × $46.38$18.51
9% chance of PSA 8 × $43.39$3.69
1% PSA 7 or lower × $38.07 (90% of raw)$0.53
Expected sale value$81.40
Selling fees (~13%)−$10.58
Raw card−$42.30
Grading (PSA Standard)−$59.99
Shipping both ways−$10.00
Average over all grades (-37%)−$41.48
▼ Volatile: the raw price moved -17% in the last 30 days. PSA Standard takes about 90–100 business days (roughly 4–5 months), so this pick is more sensitive to the price moving before the slab comes back.
Pop reports count submitted cards, and people mostly submit their best copies, so the real odds for a random raw card are likely a bit lower.
Buy Signal · Population report
Strong Buy50.2% of PSA-graded copies come back a 10
PSA population
12,318
Graded PSA 10
6,187
Gem Rate
50.2%
| Grade | PSA |
|---|---|
| 10 | 6,187 |
| 9 | 4,912 |
| 8 | 1,051 |
| 7 | 121 |
| 6 | 31 |
| 5 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 |
| Total | 12,318 |
Grade 10 value
What a Grade 10 sells for, by grading company.
BGSLeads$316.61
TAG$118.42
PSA$116.81
CGC$86.79
ACE$78.90
Price ladder
Every condition and grade Scrydex tracks for this card.
Raw
NM$42.30
LP$55.67
MP$57.69
HP$60.00
DM$34.99
Graded
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